What do today’s geopolitics mean for international boarding schools in America?
I have recently been asked on a few occasions about my views on the current geopolitical landscape and what it means for American boarding education going forward. So, I thought it might be beneficial to put my thoughts down in a more organized manner.
Higher Education
With respect to the demand for American boarding schools, what really matters is how the world perceives the strength of America’s higher education. Despite the merits of boarding education itself (in which I firmly believe), most parents hold a more near-term view and send their child to American boarding schools mainly as an assured path into America’s top universities, which parents generally regard as the “best” in the world. To this end, America’s recent spats with the rest of the world are mostly tactical in nature. They do not fundamentally alter the prestige that the Ivies command among the global elites. So long as America’s top universities can keep up their image, the demand for high-end American boarding schools will not change.
Geopolitics
When parents choose an education path for their child, political views do not necessarily matter as much as we might think. Other than university matriculations, parents care more about good old safety, exposure to drugs, social bullying, and, lately, also gender identity. While people might poke fun at the chaos coming from the current administration, I have equally observed parents feeling relieved that America seems to be once again becoming more conservative. So it is not all bad news for boarding schools and prospective families.
Visas
However, there have indeed been two administrative maneuvers that are casting shadows on American education. The first hit is on (foreign) student visa issuance. No boarding school, big or small, is immune to this risk, as the US State Department is now examining more thoroughly before granting student visas. That said, not all countries are hit equally hard. In Asia, mainland Chinese students (residing in or outside of mainland China) appear to be having a more challenging time getting their visas approved. There is really no “fix” to this development for the schools other than to continue diversifying their international student mix. End result: I expect to see the competition among students of mainland Chinese origin intensifying even further.
Decoupling
The second hit is more obvious: the tariffs. What I really worry about is not the worsening of the Chinese economy, as the families considering American boarding are not the typical families. Even when their businesses do not do as well, these families can still very much afford the boarding school fees (and more). What I worry about more is the potential for complete decoupling between China and America, stopping all people and capital flows altogether. I would park this doomsday scenario still at only a 10% chance now (compared to under 1% a year ago). A possible workaround would be to increase the proportion of those mainland Chinese students residing outside of China. Over the last few years, many well-to-do mainland Chinese families have already migrated to Southeast Asia (Singapore in particular), Australia, Canada, and even the United States.
Impact
Given the above observations, I predict no slowing of demand for the top American universities and boarding schools. But the demand for the mid-tier American education institutions, especially from the mainland Chinese communities, might suffer, as mid-tier families might increasingly see that it might no longer be “worth the trouble” to pursue education in America, especially if their child are unlikely going to end up in the top American universities anyway. As such, the mid-tier American boarding schools might have to work harder to keep their international student pipeline strong. Given how the British boarding schools are hiking their fees across the board (due to the loss of VAT exemption status), I can see how the Canadian boarding schools will benefit from this current global political landscape.
I would love to hear your thoughts below!
– Daniel
